No title for Liverpool, Arsenal above Tottenham, and Newcastle bottom – Alternative Premier League table based on expected goals
Is the Premier League really shaking down in the way it should be right now?
Liverpool have won the title at a canter with Man City dawdling after them, Norwich are rock bottom and returning to the Championship, while they seemingly have Aston Villa in tow.
But do the stats behind the beautiful game reflect these outcomes? Game by game, they certainly offer a different outlook.
According to UnderStat, Liverpool should have beaten Arsenal 2-1 on Wednesday but instead it was the Gunners who claimed victory by that scoreline.
Statistics suggest the values of the Reds’ shot against the Gunners was 2.22 expected goals (xG), while Mikel Arteta’s sides were rated overall at 1.32 xG.
It sure was unlucky as Jurgen Klopp’s side did look deserving winners on performance.
What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
But how would the Premier League look if we considered these expected goals results instead of the real ones?
Here at talkSPORT.com, we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to get an alternative look at the top-flight.
Find out how the stats suggest the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below according to expected goals…
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, talkSPORT reports