The fate of the Indian economy now hinges on a coronavirus vaccine

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Economic Times: “A longer wait for a vaccine against COVID-19 virus may lead to a contraction of up to 7.5 percent in the Indian GDP in FY21, a foreign brokerage said on Monday.”
“Economists at Bank of America Securities also revised down their base case estimates on the real GDP within a week, and now expect it to contract by 4 per cent because of a drop in economic activity.”
“It can be noted that multiple efforts to find a vaccine against the dreaded virus are on both globally as well domestically, but no timelines have been announced yet.”
“Many analysts are expecting the Indian economy to contract by 5 per cent in FY21 as a result of the nationwide lockdowns, with some also estimating a contraction of up to 7.2 per cent in the GDP.”
“India’s real GDP will likely contract by 7.5 per cent if the global economy has to wait for a vaccine discovery for a year,” the BofA analysts said, calling this as the “bear case”.
 

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